Numbers in for First Half of 2014 SV Real Estate Market Show Surprising Trends

Click to see spreadsheet in full screen

2014 Shows Similarities to 2013

2014 has been a banner year for the real estate market in and around Scotts Valley. Pretty much what was predicted by numerous real estate experts, including yours truly. You heard and read about the low inventory and how it was driving prices upwards as the supply just could not meet the demand. But if you look closer, you will see that 2014 was not much different than 2013 in many ways, and in many cases we saw less inventory last year versus this year.

I have put together some very telling stats (see above spreadsheet) as we end the first half of 2014 and also pulled up some stats from last year to see how they compare. As I like to say, the numbers never lie and in this case they continue to stay true to form.

First things first, let’s talk about the first half of this year…

First Quarter – Very Limited Inventory
In the first quarter of this year, we saw very limited inventory in Scotts Valley and it drove the demand even higher than expected with many homes being on the market just days before receiving multiple offers. The amount of new listings on MLS were:

  • January – 17 listings
  • February – 14 listings
  • March – 20 listings

The first quarter was red-hot. Interest rates were still low, as they are today and although typically the real estate market really tends to kick-off just after the Super Bowl, many buyers were not waiting and were trying to get in on the hot housing market before it took off. Multiple offers were now the norm and home buyers were driving through neighborhoods in search of “coming soon” signs hoping to get in before anyone else.

However, the second quarter saw immediate jumps in inventory as the figures showed:

  • April – 30 listings
  • May – 31 listings
  • June – 37 listings (the highest month for new listings)

Although it may seem like a tremendous jump in inventory when compared to January, as it was more than double the amount of new listings when compared, the real estate market supply still does not meet the demand for waiting buyers as currently there are 94 homes on the market with 37% of inventory already being in pending status. This figure is consistent with what the entire year has been reporting as we have seen anywhere from 31-38% on any given day of listings being pending, more than 1 in 3 are in escrow. This shows that despite the increase in listings, the sales activity has stayed consistent.

Last year in June, there were 27 new listings on the market, .90 listings per day.

The average days on market (DOM) this year has been 60 days which is only 3 days less than the first 6 months of 2013 as that figure was 63 days on the market on average. Not much of a difference, but it was a difference.

More Numbers of Today
The average list price for an active single family home on the market right now is $1,171,334, the average pending list price for a single family homes is $882,457. The average list price for an active condo-townhouse is $490,500 with the average pending condo-townhouse being $429,600.

The highest priced single family home in the Scotts Valley area that is on the market (active-pending) is $3,750,000, and the lowest price is $399,000.

Average Sales Price Jumps Almost $75,000
The average closed sales price did however make a sizable jump from $751,870 in June of last year to $826,268 this June, which is almost $75,000 higher. This means that people were buying more home this year than last year, and it also shows the fact that we saw some pretty impressive price gains in our area.

The average List-Price-to-Sales-Price percentage was 98.88%, YTD in 2014, which was just a tad bit higher than the 98.80% figure we saw last year YTD through June.

The highest closed sales price for a single family home in the Scotts Valley area was $1,679,000 and the lowest sales price was $125,000.

Condos-Townhouses Hotter in 2014
As I have reported throughout this year, the condo-townhouse market has been on fire. But it was not just hot, it was red hot and has stayed that way this year as we have seen an average List-Price-to-Sales-Price percentage of 102.68%. But surprisingly though, 2013 was no slouch either as condo-townhouses were selling at 102.29% of their list price.

At this time there are more condo-townhouses on the market then we saw the first quarter, but I expect to see them selling as they come on the market for asking price or even higher if they are priced right.

half_fullThe Verdict
Expect more of the same over the next couple of months in terms of new listings coming up on the market. If you are thinking of selling your home, now is the time to put it on the market as in just 90 days we will be in October and headed towards a slower market through the holiday season, as has been the norm since the beginning of time. When I say slower market, it is not a stand-still market, just a slower market in terms of days on market as many buyers put their buying focus on other things and not as much on real estate during the holidays.

The time to sell, if you are selling this year, is now if you have not done so already. Price it right, make sure it shows well and make sure you work with a connected agent who knows and understands the market. And put your home on MLS if you can. Remember, maximum exposure equals maximum dollars in any market.

Hard to believe I used the word “Holidays”, isn’t it? Seems like we just celebrated New Years and here we are already kissing the first half of the year goodbye.

The glass is still half full, we have a lot of summer and time left for home sellers and buyers to make their move. Interest rates are still fantastic and will remain so through the rest of the year. Many experts are predicting a hike in rates sometime in 2015. But today is today and the mortgage market is as attractive as ever as I am still seeing home buyers locking in their rates at 4.25% for a 30 year fixed rate loan. Tough to beat that!

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